While the are stringent, recommending retrofitting of seismic protection measures to older buildings and preventing the construction of new buildings near to known fault lines, there is no way to make a building 100% safe. Map of the San Andreas Fault, showing relative motion.What is realistic, however, is that a great amount of destruction is likely. While magnitudes of 7.0, 8.0 and 9.0 might sound negligibly different, the energy that such events would unleash varies significantly, with a magnitude 9.0 event releasing 32 times more energy than a magnitude 8.0 and 1,000 times more energy than a magnitude 7.0.Obviously, however, be it a 7.0 or an 8.0, damage is inevitable, but the whole sequence of events, as depicted in the film, is unlikely. Here, two plates are sliding past each other.As such, limit the possible maximum earthquake magnitude along the San Andreas fault system to 8.0, although with a 7% probability estimate that such an event could occur in Southern California in the next 30 years over the same period, there is a 75% chance of a magnitude 7.0 event. The tectonic situation in California is different. While not unheard of globally, earthquakes of this size are generally confined to regions of the earth where – where one tectonic plate is being forced below another – is happening, for example in Chile and Japan. In the film, the San Andreas fault produces an earthquake with a of 9.0. How big is ‘Big’?So just how big could this potential earthquake be and is it possible that the destruction demonstrated in the film could actually come to fruition? Fiction or fact?In short, Californians will be (reasonably) pleased with the answers to these questions. In simple terms, the San Andreas is one of many fault systems roughly marking the border between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. Of course, the reiteration of the seismic hazard to Californians will be nothing surprising, but what is new is the warning that the southern portion of the fault “”.Why is this eminent seismologist making these alarming statements? Well, the fact is that there has not been a major release of stresses in the southern portion of the since 1857. The director of the, Thomas Jordan, made an announcement recently that would have sent a chill down the spine of every Californian: that the San Andreas fault appears to be in a critical state and as such, could generate a large earthquake imminently. Partnersprovides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.The Conversation UK receives funding from these organisationsRepublish our articles for free, online or in print, under Creative Commons licence. Author.Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography and Natural Hazards, Coventry UniversityDisclosure statementMatthew Blackett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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